Sixty Days of Hell
The 13th of March came on a Friday in 2001. In New York City, the ides of March began with a temperature of 46 degrees and Relative Humidity of 35%. This was a good morning for SARS-CoV-2 virion, therefore was not a good day for New Yorkers. This was about to change. This was the fifth consecutive day of poor virion viability. The overnight temperature of 46 degrees, which, by itself, is an excellent temperature for virion viability, but the 93% humidity, was bad for virion viability in the atmosphere.
At over twelve and one half hours, the first night of Hell Months was a long one. The city was safe as long as the previous day’s virion could not survive the night, beginning each day relatively virion free air. The night of March 12, 2020 was 46 °F and 93% RH so virion viability was about eight hours. Sunset on the 12th was 7:00 P.M. and sunrise on the 13th was 7:07 A.M. This meant intense virion development by commuters had over about twelve hours to dissipate but the virion had only eight hours of viability. After sunrise, warmer temperatures, higher humidity and sunlight kept the virion count to a minimum during the day.
A virus cell (virion) is not alive by ordinary definitions even though they reproduce so they cannot “die.” But they do lose their ability to infect people with time. The amount of time a virion is “hazardous” is its viability time. The three atmospheric factors that affect virion viability are humidity, temperature and ultraviolet. Other factors such as pH and surfactants (wetting agents) have a much quicker effect but while in the air, these other factors are not as important.
With only one reported Covid-19 case and favorable conditions, the morning commute on March 2, 2020 was relatively hazard free. In the minds of New Yorkers, Covid-19 news was about other placed over the next two weeks because of the low number of new daily cases and favorable meteorological conditions.
Research on SARS-CoV-1 determined these conditions were not favorable for spread. SARS-CoV-1 and its close cousin SARS-CoV-2 are quite similar to each other, previous strains of flu and even the common cold. While we couldn’t be absolutely certain about the specifics of SARS-CoV-2, we had experience and general information about respiratory viruses and especially flu strains. Historically these type diseases are slowed that high atmospheric humidity and temperatures. This was good for humans and bad for the flu.
Exact values for virion lifetime are not as well developed as might be desired but it is know that temperatures near freezing and relative humidity below 50% have a marked effect on the virus. Virion-viability hours stated in this story are estimates, but the numbers are definitely in the ballpark. For example, there are very close to 10 times more hours of viability when the temperature is 46 °F and relative humidity is 24% than when the temperature is 90 °F and humidity is 82%.
Virion are not immediately generated at sunset and do not all immediately go away immediately in the morning. Having said all that, the concepts are sound and the virion survival numbers given are in the ballpark. Actual meteorological conditions in New York City including temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and speed, sunrise and sunset contribute to the authenticity.
March began with low temperatures and low humidity, optimal for maximum virion viability but there was only one reported case of Covid-19 in the city. Over the first two weeks virion generation conditions were good but not great for virion, not for people. Sources of virion were minimal though conditions for spread were good.
Environmental and sociological conditions conspired to increase Covid-19 growth dramatically on the night of March 13, 2020. Covid-19 had its foothold in the United State’s greatest metropolis. The temperature fell to 46 °F and the relative humidity to 35%.
More importantly, news media began broadcasting stories of individuals serenading health care workers from their apartments in Italy. Known for their operatic serenades the Italians opened their windows and saluted those stalwart health care workers whom risked their health and lives to protect their friends and neighbors. The serenades were a way to express the common man’s love and appreciation for the selfless acts of these brave medical professionals.
This act of love and compassion was the kindling that started a firestorm of infections in Italy which were now causing increased spread in New York City and the world. The act was unfortunate because of its timing. As mentioned above, the confluence of March’s winds and dry – chilly weather of spring conspired to create a perfect storm of conditions in the concrete canyons of multistory urban developments such as found in larger cities throughout the world.
Architects spend millions of dollars to make models of large cities when designing buildings. They are concerned about the effects of strong winds on large structures. Some of their information is also useful to understand seasonal winds. For example, a taller building downwind of a shorter building will cause a breeze down the face of the taller building and up the face of the shorter building. A person serenading out the windows of upper floors of the taller building sends their breath out the window, down to sidewalk level, across the street and up the shorter building.
This is important because an asymptomatic singer, whom may not be showing symptoms, is emitting as many as 1,000 times as many virus droplets as someone setting in their living room or lying down. This is especially deadly because there are two types of respiratory droplets. The types of droplets are water based and mucous based droplets. Water based droplets are not pure water, but water with a bit of embedded salt just like the blood stream. The salt is important because it attracts atmospheric moisture. If the exhaled water droplets were pure water, they would evaporate in seconds. The salt in the droplets means that they may even attract more water from the air and grow. This causes the tiny invisible droplets to last for hours or even days. Mucous droplets are viscous and last much longer under all conditions. Mucous droplets also “tend” to be larger unless they are falling a long distance.
These respiratory droplets are either droplets or aerosols depending on their size. All aerosol droplets are still droplets, but smaller. Different authorities have different cutoff diameters for aerosols but generally, aerosols are those below 5 micrometers in diameter. This distinction is essential because aerosols are responsible for their contribution to quick Covid-19 spread.
Researchers have discovered that the size most responsible for flu variants is 0.3 micrometers (300 nanometers). This size is so deadly because they seem to float with the breeze like dust motes, except you can see dust motes and not aerosol droplets. Larger droplets fall to the ground quickly and directly. Aerosols remain in the air like smells or smoke.
Nature is truly out to get us because the aerosols are also the size most prevalent in a person’s breath whether infected with Covid-19 or not. A Covid-19 virion is 9 to 12 nanometers in diameter, which is much smaller than a respiratory droplet. The smallest aerosol droplet can contain a number of virion. Millions of Covid-19 virion can exist in larger droplets.
The one key piece of information seems to be a “state secret.” One thousand virion will infect 50% of persons exposed them. A single aerosol droplet can contain more than 1,000 virion. The bottom line is that a single droplet has the ability to infect susceptible persons.
A typical person releases about 7,000 virion per minute at rest and 1,260,000 per minute when singing. That means that a singing person emits 180 times more virion than does a quiet-resting person. Not every droplet emitted by an infected person necessarily contains virion, but it is true that the number of virion increases as a person becomes more infected.
A singing infected person emits 180 times more respiratory droplets than does a resting person. If an infected person is singing out a window, it is like walking in the vicinity of 180 infectious persons to a person on the sidewalk.
It is true that in open air the breeze dilutes the virion air. However, a singing person is continuously spewing out the equivalent of 180 quiet persons. The street level breeze in a canyon of apartment buildings only serves to mix street level air more uniformly.
There is another factor for upper stories of buildings. Larger droplets, which tend to be mucous based because they are generated by vocal chords, tongue and teeth generate last longer. These larger droplets accelerate through the air while falling and assume a teardrop shape. The tail of the teardrop waggles much like a car following a semi truck and breaks off creating a trail of aerosol droplets that remain in the air even longer than water based aerosol droplets and the sticky mucous easily adheres to surfaces such as skin, clothes and hair, making every walker a carrier of Covid-19 on their body and clothes.
Those droplets that fall all the way to the ground dry to form fomite, which is much like dust. This fomite can be “picked up” just like dust and transported throughout the city on shoes, socks, pants legs and tires which is transported by commuters.
The key factor here is that on low temperature, low humidity nights all the virion generated by the singer are still hanging around well into the day.
But Mother Nature has not yet reached the bottom of her bag of tricks! You might be surprised to learn the origin of the 95 stands for in the name of the N95 mask. The technology is wonderful because it uses advanced science. Normal fabric filtering, has small access holes that only allow small particles to pass through while larger particles are caught in its fabric. The truly clever part is that the fabric is also electrostatic to attract and hold smaller particles.
The 95 in the mask’s name is a measure of efficacy. The mask catches 95% of particles at its point of maximum effectiveness. As particles become smaller than that size, the mask becomes more effective. As particles become larger than that size, the mask becomes more effective. The problem with a respiratory virus is that the mask is least effective and passes 5% of the particles at this crossover point. The crossover diameter is in the region of 300 nanometers. The N95 mask is least effective on 300 nm droplets, the most virulent size of Covid-19 particles.
This patented mask is the best we have and it passes 5% of Covid-19’s most aggressive droplets. And this is only if your face is the correct size, you have fitted the mask perfectly; you don’t have facial hair or wrinkles and so forth.
The bottom line here is that with a bevy of infected singers each filling the air with millions of Covid-19 laden droplets how can anyone be safe when our most protective measure, the N95 mask that allows at 5% of droplets to pass directly through the mask. Only one of those millions of aerosol droplets can potentially infect 50% of the people that breathe them in.
What was the solution to New York’s dilemma?
Could this have been stopped? It certainly could have been at least reduced. Quite simply the solution was to stop singing out of windows!
Who could have predicted this outcome? You might guess that someone did predict this outcome and commented about it on March 22, 2020. The Facebook posting is attached to the end of this document.
If a know-nothing redneck from the deep south could predict this so soon (immediately after seeing the first reports of serenades in Italy) despite working in a spare bedroom why couldn’t the $6 Billion per year geniuses at the NIH and/or CDC have glanced at a television and said to themselves, “Golly gee, this serenading might be a bad idea!”
They were certainly on television and their employees and contributors were on TV. CNN had dozens of “experts” on TV but not a one mentioned actual science. All this information was available before the first known U.S. case. Scientists create Science. Public relations people talk on television. Why didn’t the NIAID public relations person ask people to close their windows and save thousands of lives? After all he is Mr. Science.
Overpaid bureaucrats and even more overpaid television talking heads don’t create science; they create disruption and discourse. Pushing papers, creating budgets, ignoring citizens and viva la dolce is not the route to science. Bureaucrats serving a good wine on the back deck their taxpayer-funded palace while entertaining television lackeys will not save a single life, even if AARP approves with a feature article.
The New York Times will tell New Yorkers just how good they have life just as long as they don’t have to put up the people or arise from their computer chairs to actually research useful news not delivered on a gold-painted Google platter.
Twits on twitter certainly could not contribute any help as thousands were needlessly dying.
CNN showing pictures of simulated spitting from manikin heads did not contribute to the conversation.
CBS mindlessly providing “good times news” about happy serenades certainly did not serve the populace well. What happened to their legacy of success and public service from the 1960s when Walter Cronkite told us what we wanted to hear and what we didn’t want to hear without a single sermon and trusted us enough to tell us how we feel.
Covid-19 did not kill thousands in New York City in March, April and May of 2020; social media and government bureaucracy did.
The following Facebook post has not retouched or modified in any way. Sorry about the few grammar gaffs but the gist and main points are accurate, as are the predictions.
Facebook post
I think I can tell you one reason why the Covid-19 cases are spreading so quickly in Italy. On CNN you’ve seen the pictures of people leaning out of windows while they sing, shout and play instruments? This virus is spread by aerosol. Another word for it is spit. When people talk to each other there is a certain amount of aerosol because of the talking process. That aerosol is also heavier than air. The people on the top floor are sharing whatever they have gathered and grown with the floors below. That is not just directly below if there is any breeze at all. CNN found this to be a wonderful thing. Last night CNN showed the same scene of people leaning out their windows and communicating their appreciation for health workers, and in France and CNN commented on how wonderful it was to see. Apparently they were proud that they might be the reason. The French that have shared aerosol will probably be seeing and sharing with those health workers soon. The recommendation is six (horizontal) feet of separation. There is no horizontal separation to the apartment below, or the apartment below that, only vertical separation. So, why didn’t the CNN ‘experts’ notice and comment on the shared ‘joy’ that will become misery. CNN likes to throw rocks but they live in a very thin glass house. I think we should call it the CNN Virus.
Copyright 2021 David Hunt
